Goodbye Charlie Munger

  • Here is the latest from Canadian Value Investors!

  • Goodbye Charlie Munger

  • Supremex YTD Update

  • SAVE merger

Goodbye Charlie Munger

In memory of Charlie Munger, a sage so wise, a value investor’s mentor, under vast financial skies. His intellect, a beacon, forever will gleam, A visionary force, like a perpetual stream.

With words that cut through the market's haze, He guided us through investment's maze. Now, as we gather, hearts heavy with loss, We celebrate a life well-lived, no coin tossed.

In homage to a mind sharp and bold, A legacy written in wisdom, stories told. So, raise your glasses, let Coca-Cola flow, A toast to Charlie Munger, may his spirit glow.

The CVI Team

Charlie Munger passed away at the age of 99. He has been our most important mentor in a way, and our favorite talk of all time is his life changing Standard Causes of Human Misjudgment - https://www.canadianvalueinvestors.com/charlie-mungers-list

Charlie Munger - “When I saw this patterned irrationality, which was so extreme, and I had no theory or anything to deal with it, but I could see that it was extreme, and I could see that it was patterned, I just started to create my own system of psychology, partly by casual reading, but largely from personal experience, and I used that pattern to help me get through life.”

SODI, POWW, Petrobras, and more investing ideas from around the world

Provided to subscribers October 18th.  

Here is the latest from Canadian Value Investors!

  • Solitron SODI /Ammo, Inc. POWW Updates

  • Petrobras – Highest production ever

  • Investing in Japan

  • Ideas from around the world - Investing in Bhutan

  • China Tensions

We would first like to say that we do not mean to be doomsayers, even though our portfolio being weighted towards guns, oil, and canned vegetables might give this appearance. They are just the best opportunities we have found at the moment and, oddly enough, the original purchases were not driven by the macro tailwinds we are having. We are actively seeking out happier ideas. If only the LEGO Group was a public company. https://www.lego.com/en-us/aboutus/lego-group

Solitron SODI /Ammo, Inc. POWW Updates

Disclosure: We continue to own these.

Since our last update, Hamas attacked Israel and concerns it might turn into a much larger issue has brought even more attention to defence/gun companies. Here is a chart of our two related holdings as well as some large cap peers that we do not own. Ammo appears to be outrunning the rest on no news. There does seem to be an uptick in garbage posts on Twitter about it (see next), which might be playing a role given the small market cap (previously ~$200MM, now ~$300MM).

Solitron provided a bit more color on their acquisition of Micro Engineering. We also found the actual stock purchase agreement via a filing. Here you go.  https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91668/000165495423011547/sodi_ex101.htm

Effective September 1 Solitron closed its acquisition of Micro Engineering Inc. (MEI) based in Apopka, Florida. MEI specializes in solving design layout and manufacturing challenges while maximizing efficiency and keeping flexibility to meet unique customer needs. Since 1980 the MEI team has been dedicated to overcoming obstacles to provide cost efficient and rapid results. MEI specializes in low to mid volume projects that require engineering dedication, quality systems and efficient manufacturing.

The transaction was structured as a stock purchase. An initial payment of $3.0 million was made at closing. Additional earnout payments of up to 7.5% of annual revenue, or approximately $450,000 each, would be payable over each of the next three years. MEI produces electronic components primarily for the medical industry. Revenue for 2022 was approximately $5.9 million (unaudited) as compared to approximately $5.5 million (unaudited) in 2021. Unaudited operating income was approximately $1.3 million in 2022 and approximately $1.2 million in 2021. One customer accounted for approximately 90% of revenues in both 2021 and 2022.

The full stock purchase agreement includes full balance sheet for the working capital adjustment calculations. The table below is from the end of the report; it appears that YTD net income is running below 2021/2022, but maybe the business has some seasonality to it.

Now that the new facility is up and running, things seem to be trending in the right direction for the core business.

Net Sales. Net sales for the three months ended August 31, 2023 increased 18% to $2,579,000 as compared to $2,187,000 for the three months ended August 31, 2022. The increase in net sales was largely due to customer delivery schedules.

Net bookings for the three months ended August 31, 2023 increased 39% to $2,231,000 versus $1,607,000 during the three months ended August 31, 2022. Backlog as of August 31, 2023 increased 85% to $8,785,000 as compared to a backlog of $4,755,000 as of August 31, 2022.

Petrobras – Highest production ever

Disclosure: We continue to own this.

The good news keeps coming for Petrobras. They recently beat their all-time high production while oil floats in the $80s.

Rio de Janeiro, October 16, 2023 - Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras informs that it broke its quarterly record for operated oil and gas production in the third quarter of this year, with 3.98 MMboed (million barrels of oil equivalent per day), 7.8% above the second quarter. It also achieved a monthly record for operated production in September, with a volume of 4.1 MMboed, 6.8% higher than in August.

Although the stock is up 70-80% year-to-date (depending on share series and currency), it has not really moved that much… now has it? Looking back to this day in 2019, Petrobras traded at around the same market cap and an EV / earnings multiple of ~18x, while today it is trading at EV / earnings of ~5x even though oil prices are more robust, debt is well managed, and actual operating performance is stronger. But maybe shares in this business really are just worth 3-ish times earnings. We will ponder this question while we continue to collect our dividends (about 20% YTD).

Investing in Japan

Disclosure: We have no positions except through Berkshire itself. 

Back in the middle of COVID, Warren Buffett bought five of the big trading houses in Japan. And in typical Buffett fashion, he has done fabulously well.

  • ITOCHU Corporation TSE:8001

  • Marubeni Corporation TSE:8002

  • Mitsubishi Corporation TSE:8058

  • Mitsui & Co., Ltd. TSE:8031

  • Naito & Co., Ltd. TSE:7624

Interestingly, he has recently been adding to his positions. Maybe the party is not over with P/Es of around 10x currently. Why did he invest in the first place? Here’s an overview we found.

Value Punks' Daye Deng on why Warren Buffett $BRK invested in Japanese Trading Companies https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/yet-another-value-podcast/id1526149547?i=1000631149927

If the large caps are interesting, might not the microcaps be even more interesting? Some think so. We ourselves are interested, but we would be starting from scratch and are finding wonderful opportunities locally. Still, maybe we should look closer.

The Case for Japanese MicroCaps with David Baeckelandt, Head of Client Relations at SuMi TRUST https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/planet-microcap-podcast-microcap-investing-strategies/id1024217659?i=1000631057120

Ideas from around the world - Investing in Bhutan

Disclosure: We have no investments in Bhutan.

The Royal Securities Exchange of Bhutan (RSEB) is one of the smallest in the world with a total market capitalization of its listed companies totaling ~$700M at the time of this writing. The exchange opened in 1993 and offered electronic trading in 2012. There are currently 19 companies listed on the exchange.

https://opusletter.substack.com/p/investing-adventures-in-bhutan

China Tensions - First case of expropriation of Chinese assets in the U.S.?

Arkansas has become the first state to order that a Chinese company give up ownership of local land, amid fears of attempts by Beijing to malignly infiltrate and influence the U.S. through various means.

On Tuesday, Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders announced that she was ordering Syngenta to relinquish its 160 acres of land holdings in northeastern Arkansas, accusing its owner of "posing a clear threat to our state." The Switzerland-headquartered agricultural chemicals producer was acquired in 2017 by the state-owned China National Chemical Corporation, and primarily trades in pesticides and seeds.

https://www.newsweek.com/china-land-arkansas-sarah-huckabee-sanders-1835652

Ammo Inc. POWW – Do you feel lucky, punk?

Provided to subscribers September 25th.

Here is the latest from Canadian Value Investors!

  • New idea – Ammo Inc. POWW – Do you feel lucky, punk?

  • Ideas from around the web - Crowdsourcing

  • Microcap conference highlight - How do you make 100x?

  • Our portfolio impact score

Ammo Inc. POWW – Do you feel lucky, punk?

Disclosure: We own this one.

Do we like AMMO, Inc. because of its ticker, POWW? We do like fun tickers (PBR is still our favourite). However, we do try to not be biased by these things. Instead, we think that POWW is potentially significantly under-valued, definitely under-followed, and underlying improvements are hidden by accounting. It is a story of two companies, the first in turnaround and the Ebay-of-guns – gunbroker.com - hiding underneath with a new CEO focusing on the right things. This is our kind of story.

TLDR: Market cap is $234MM at $1.99 share price - Gunbroker throws off roughly $30MM (ignoring upside from new initiatives) and if valued at a high single digit multiple, of say 8x, you would get you a $100-200MM revenue ammo business and ~$40MM of cash for free. 

We always seek feedback on our articles, but more so than usual here. If you have any insight into this idea, send us a note! We currently have a relatively small position for the reasons noted below.

What is Ammo, Inc.?

We would like to start by saying this has a bit of a complicated history that we will attempt to explain briefly. It really is a tale of two companies, the original ammo company started in 2016 and then later the acquired gunbroker.com website.

Ammo came into existence in 2016 and prior to this was a shell/failed company:

“-On this date, our CEO and Chairman, Fred Wagenhals, acquired the outstanding shares of the former Company, resulting in a change of control

-The name of the company was changed to AMMO, Inc.

-The OTC trading symbol was changed to POWW

-As the sole director, Mr. Wagenhals approved a 1-for-25 reverse stock split

-A plan of merger was filed to re-domicile and change the state of incorporation from California to Delaware

-Under the domicile change, a new certificate of incorporation was filed increasing the number of authorized shares of common stock from 15.0 million to 100 million; establishing a par value of $0.001

On March 17, 2017, AMMO Inc. acquired all of the outstanding shares of a private company incorporated in the State of Delaware, using the same trade name "AMMO, Inc.".  The combined operations for AMMO, Inc. was reorganized as a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of performance-driven, high-quality and innovative ammunition products.

The Ammo Business

The original vision for Ammo, Inc. seems to have taken a shotgun approach. The idea was to purchase and/or make partnerships with companies and inventors to produce unique proprietary products, like streak visual ammunition (licensed from University of Louisiana at Lafayette). What is “streak visual ammunition” anyway?  https://youtu.be/uT7kdJq4bZA?si=TY-crshbIwnvukWm

Overall, this has been a bit painful so far. However, there have been two recent changes that are unfolding: 1) The Company opened a new manufacturing plant in Wisconsin in August 2022 and 2) Ammo is streamlining its product offerings to focus on higher margin products with lower working capital needs (e.g. making just shell casings instead of a complete bullet) instead of chasing volumes.

Unfortunately, similar to some other industries, the U.S. ammo industry is working through inventory overhang and customer over purchasing during COVID. An interesting case study is ammo.com (see chart below) - https://ammo.com/coronavirus-impact-on-ammunition-sales This macro environment has not been helpful.

Note: Financials are off-cycle, with FY2023 ending March 31, 2023 (i.e. the new plant opened mid-FY2023).

Gunbroker.com

What is gunbroker.com? The website was launched in 1999 by Steve Urvan. Over the years it became the eBay of guns (and was actually created because eBay banned gun sales). It is by far the largest online gun website in the U.S.  and has the same network effects of eBay while also benefitting from regulatory red tape slowing down competitors. 38% of FFL (Federal Firearms License) holders (think stores) use the site. An individual lists their gun and can sell it to anyone in the U.S. However, guns can only be picked up by purchasers at a FFL, which does a background check through the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) before handing it off.

We want to pause here on the potential value of the platform. It takes a bit of time to understand gun culture if you are not in it and we imagine some of our Canadian readers might be particularly unaccustomed. It is not just utility. Not all guns are equal. There are many types of buyers; many customize their guns and some collect antiques. Ever seen a Martini-Henry? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martini%E2%80%93Henry This makes an eBay platform very valuable for some buyers and it does not necessarily compete against the gun-Walmarts of the world.

The site takes a percentage of every sale and has 50% operating margins (~$30MM on a market cap of $234MM for the whole business). More importantly, it has these margins while not having any credit card processing, shipping assistance/service, or even a shopping cart. You literally have to buy one gun at a time and ammo and accessories are not to be found on the site, yet. See the plan below.

It was opportunistically purchased by Ammo in the middle of COVID. They acquired it for $240MM, albeit in a complicated deal structure that led to two years of board battles after Steve joined the Board. - https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2021/05/03/2221342/0/en/AMMO-Inc-Announces-Closing-of-Acquisition-of-GunBroker-com.html The two key issues were the vision for gunbroker (whether it should be a neutral platform or promote Ammo ammo) and Steve’s compensation for the sale (significant stock, which declined in price after the deal). It is a bit awkward that the combined entity’s market cap approximates the purchase price.

The Board problems appear to be largely settled (see background notes below), with the new CEO coming in a few months after the Settlement Agreement.

The Bull and Bear Cases

Crowdsourcing Ideas

We are always looking for new ideas. Here’s a great list we are looking through ourselves. https://x.com/ClarkSquareCap/status/1704297844402713043

See post for more ideas.

How do you make 100x?

This was one of our favourite talks at the recent Planet Microcap showcase. https://youtu.be/8oVfaLurCVI?si=ulmRga2xgzIznIQj

Our portfolio impact score

Unfortunately, our concentrated portfolio of things like coal, oil, and canned vegetables does not pass the impact test.

Startek NYSE:SRT and Weekend Pitches

Provided to subscribers on September 2nd.

\Here is the latest from Canadian Value Investors!

  • Long weekend reading – Pitches from around the web

  • What does President Lula tweet about anyway?

  • Startek (NYSE:SRT) back in play, Charlie Brown?

Quick pitches from around the web

Disclosure: At publication we do not have a position in any of these, but are evaluating.

The rise of Crocs (NASDAQ:CROCX) – Crocs shoes have taken the fashion world and value investing community by storm. We have never owned a pair and do not intend to, but always appreciate a remarkable growth story combined with thoughtful share repurchases. Is this a fad or a durable brand? https://unconventionalvalue.substack.com/p/whats-behind-the-rise-of-crocs

Thread here - https://x.com/andrewrangeley/status/1693695373410238968?s=12&t=S1ewsT6UpWXPOoivWFxT6w

Worthington Industries (WOR) – “Forthcoming “early 2024” spin-off of steel processing business could unleash more buyback, dividend, and/or M&A activity at the RemainCo”. Great piece on a neat situation. https://www.flyoverstocks.com/p/flyover-stock-worthington-industries

Mueller Industries (NYSE: MLI) – “Mueller Industries is a 100-year-old sleeper industrial machinery small-cap in the HVAC, refrigeration, and plumbing space. Although boosted by previously rising copper prices, Mueller’s revenue growth, profit margins, and returns on equity and capital are compelling. Underfollowed and underbought, the market assigns a deep discount to the stock price.” https://davidjwaldron.substack.com/p/mueller-industries-nyse-mli

Gypsum Management & Supply ($GMS) – “Another wonderful distribution business”. This one peaked our interest given our continued position in Taiga Building Products (TSX:TBL, please just buy us out at a nice premium Avarga) https://justvalue.substack.com/p/gypsum-management-and-supply-gms?utm_medium=reader2

And remember you can always copy Michael Burry of Big Short fame - https://x.com/burrytracker/status/1692287456543162718?s=12&t=S1ewsT6UpWXPOoivWFxT6w

Quick note Petrobras (PBR) - What does President Lula tweet about anyway?

As part of our approach to keep on top of Petrobras, we follow a number of accounts including El Presidente Lula. Tweets are high volume and interesting. https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1696495122182029425

Petrobras’ new CEO Jean Paul Pratesalso posts, and sometimes important tidbits come up like information on refining pricing (one of our key concerns). E.g. the official narrative is that they are blaming gas station owners for high prices. https://twitter.com/jeanpaulprates/status/1658498615441014789            

Startek (NYSE:SRT) back in play, Charlie Brown?

Disclosure: At publication we own a small position in this.

Majority owner CSP is back at it again, trying to take Startek private. The new offer has no financing conditions and is 22% above the current share price. But, will it go through this time or are we poor Charlie Brown?

The new offer press release:

DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The board of directors of Startek, Inc. (SRT) has formed a special committee of independent directors that is authorized to evaluate the non-binding proposal, dated July 18, 2023, by CSP Management Limited to acquire all the shares of Startek that it does not already own for $3.80 in cash per share. CSP is currently the beneficial owner of approximately 56% of the outstanding shares of Startek. CSP states in its non-binding proposal that it is not contemplating selling its interests in Startek or approving any combination of Startek with, or a sale of all or substantially all of the assets of Startek to, any other potentially interested party.

The special committee has engaged Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP as its counsel and Houlihan Lokey, Inc. as its financial advisor to assist in its consideration of the proposal.

Startek cautions its stockholders and others considering trading in its securities that the proposal by CSP was received only recently and that no decisions have been made by the special committee about how to respond. A copy of the proposal letter from CSP is available as an exhibit to CSP’s statement of beneficial ownership on Schedule 13D/A as publicly filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The Proposed Transaction

The offer per CSP’s filing:

On July 18, 2023, CSP EAF II GP Limited, as general partner of CSP Fund II LP (“CSP EAF”), an entity affiliated with the Reporting Persons, submitted an offer letter (the “Proposal”) to the Issuer’s board of directors (the “Board of Directors”) to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Common Stock of the Issuer not already beneficially owned by the Reporting Persons at a price per share of $3.80 in cash (the “Proposed Transaction”).

CSP EAF intends to finance the Proposed Transaction with fully committed equity capital, which will be provided by one or more investment funds affiliated with CSP EAF (such affiliated investment funds, together with CSP EAF, “CSP II”). The Proposed Transaction would result in a de-listing and de-registration of the Common Stock.

What’s different?

This time around, it is a largely different set of independent directors and a different advisor, but a new meaningful shareholder - MCI - is making some noise. In the macro, peers have also declined. Will this new lower offer clear?

MCI

One wildcard is MCI. Since the last go-around, MCI acquired ~7% of outstanding shares at a cost base of ~$4.20. They are not happy and have sent the Board a letter telling them so. MCI also owns call centers. It is possible that their position could help with a higher final bid. We are a bit confused by their purchase; they already knew the Startek CSP ownership control and should have been able to guess CSP would attempt to take the company private again.

Most importantly – “Further, unlike the recent Movate f/k/a CSS transaction, which CSP also controlled both sides of, a fairness opinion should be required this time by the Board of Directors (and/or Committee) to effect this deal. We hope that the Board, and particularly the Directors not affiliated with the controlling stockholder, will carefully consider these concerns, and take appropriate steps to protect the interests of the minority stockholders, including, but not limited to, requiring that a “majority of the minority” approve the take-private transaction. We believe such (a) requirement(s) is (are) generally recognized as (a) market protection(s) afforded to holders against self-interested transactions by a controlling stockholder and is a basis for a more favorable standard for review under Delaware Law. We call on other Company stockholders who may share our concerns to review and make their views known.”

Edgar here - https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=0001031029

Board Changes

Since 2022, the independent Board Member composition has changed significantly. As a quick recap, the 2022 offer was rejected by a committee of independent directors, of which there were three (the rest are tied to CSP). Per the Q2 2023 report:

On July 18, 2023, CSP EAF II GP Limited general partner of CSP Fund II LP (“CSP”) has submited an open offer ("the Proposal") to acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock (“Common Shares”) of Startek, Inc. (“Startek”) that are not already beneficially owned by CSP Management Limited at a price per share of $ 3.80 in cash. Subsequently, the Board of Startek has appointed a Special Committee comprising of three independent directors to evaluate the Proposal. The Committee has appointed independent advisors to assist them in their evaluation.

Their full rejection:

Special Committee of Startek Updates Stockholders on Status of Preliminary Non-Binding Proposal by CSP

September 9, 2022

DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sep. 9, 2022-- The Special Committee of the Board of Directors of Startek, Inc. (NYSE: SRT) announced today that it has rejected the preliminary, non-binding proposal, dated August 8, 2022, by CSP Management Limited and certain of its affiliates (collectively, CSP) to acquire all the shares of Startek that CSP does not already own for $4.65 per share in cash. CSP is currently the beneficial owner of approximately 56% of the outstanding shares of Startek.

In July 2022, at the request of the Committee, management of the Company prepared an updated financial forecast (Forecast) for the 2022 calendar year and the four following calendar years 2023 to 2026. The Forecast projects annual revenue growth, beginning in calendar year 2023 and for the duration of the Forecast period, to exceed 5%. The Forecast projects that the margin for variable profit and for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, will steadily increase over the Forecast period, with the latter approaching 11% by calendar year 2026. The Forecast was reviewed by the full Board of Directors of the Company to ensure the Board's comments were reflected. On August 1, the Company provided the Forecast to the Committee. The Committee and its financial and legal advisors separately engaged in several additional discussions with management of the Company to assist the Committee in determining whether to adopt the Forecast for purposes of evaluating the CSP proposal.

Based upon this work, the Committee  to return the Company to improved financial performance over the Forecast period. The Committee adopted the Forecast for purposes of evaluating the CSP proposal. The factors that the Committee has considered include the trading history of Startek stock, financial analyses of Startek using the Forecast, the macroeconomic environment, the Company’s limited float and liquidity, the ability to pay of a financial sponsor such as CSP, communications that the Committee has received from shareholders, and CSP’s statement that it is currently not a seller of its majority stake in the Company. The Committee has determined, at this time, that the proposal at $4.65 is inadequate and not in the best interests of the shareholders of Startek.

Foros, the Committee's financial advisor, notified CSP on August 21, 2022 that the Committee had determined that the proposed price of $4.65 was inadequate and explained the basis for this determination as described in the preceding paragraphs of this press release. Since that time, rather than submitting a revised proposal, CSP has repeatedly requested more “specific directional guidance on how [the Committee] is thinking about value and price.” The Committee considered this request by taking into account that CSP already possesses the full Forecast and has understood since August 21 that the Committee is using this Forecast for its financial analysis of proposals by CSP. After considering this factor, as well as the Committee’s objective of maximizing value for shareholders, the Committee determined and informed CSP that it would be inappropriate and redundant to provide additional directional guidance to CSP beyond the explanations already provided to CSP. The Committee has reiterated to CSP that the Committee remains available to evaluate and respond to a revised proposal by CSP.

There can be no assurance that any revised proposal or definitive offer will be made or accepted, that any agreement will be executed, or that any transaction will be consummated.

Foros is serving as financial advisor to the Special Committee and Freshfields is serving as legal counsel.

So, the original committee was the three independent directors. What’s changed? One left (Julie) and two more came in. They never disclosed if it was a unanimous vote, but the member who left seems like one that would vote against, and new members were recruited and elected post-offer failure. 

Side note: One quick way to check historical Board Member composition is using the wayback machine (web archive), but of course pulling the actual filings is better and should be double checked. - https://web.archive.org/web/20220930095633/https://investor.startek.com/corporate-governance/board-of-directors/

Advisors – 2022 vs 2023

The financial advisor the Board has selected this time around is a top tier advisor for a company of their size. A fairness opinion from them could give Board Members comfort indeed.

2022 bid – “Foros is serving as financial advisor to the Special Committee and Freshfields is serving as legal counsel.”

2023 – Houlihan Lokey advisor and legal with Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher. Houlihan has been around for 50 years and was #1 in 2022 for M&A deals under $1B.  https://middlemarketgrowth.org/awards-2023-investment-bank-of-the-year-houlihan-lokey/

The Over-Under

Is there a bet here? Or maybe we should take George Bush’s ethos to heart – “Fool me once… shame on – shame on you. Fool me… you can’t get fooled again”? https://youtu.be/KjmjqlOPd6A For now, it is interesting enough to us for a small position.