Investing Flashbacks Series – Unicorp. Case Study : How to make 8X your money

We recently read up on a company called Wilmington Capital Management, which was formerly known as Unicorp. To anyone familiar with Brookfield (or as it was formerly known as, Brascan), there were a lot of familiar names; Unicorp was run by folks such as Ian Cockwell and Brian Lawson.

 The Company made two particularly interesting real estate investments during the 1990s – 2000s, and here are their stories.

 

SPY Properties

On September 30, 1997, Unicorp purchased a 50% stake in SPY Properties. SPY owned 12 residential rental-only buildings with 3,364 units in Ontario, with virtually nil vacancy.

Unicorp’s 50% stake was purchased for $116 million, which was financed by (1) $110 million of non-recourse debt, (2) $5 million in cash, and (3) $1 million in Unicorp warrants with a $5/share strike (just under book value and around where the stock was trading at the time) and expiration of Dec 31, 1998.

In case you missed that, let’s just repeat the $116 million purchase was financed by $110 million (95%) of non-recourse debt. The Company was still relatively conservatively financed; excluding all the non-recourse assets and debt, book value was $52 million which was mostly made of net unencumbered cash.

Now, what was the general thesis for these rental-only residential buildings? As background, in 1997 the then-premier ended rent controls with the passing of Bill 96, to try encouraging new residential rental development. Also, in their words from the next two years’ annual reports:

“Apartment properties, as an investment class, have proven in recent years to be a very stable component of the real estate sector, a fact that appears to have been neglected by Canadian institutional investors for many years.  Apartment properties continue to sell at prices significantly below replacement cost, although an increasing number of non–private purchasers, including institutional investors and a selected number of well-capitalized public companies and REITS, have recently caused selling prices to move higher.”

“During past economic slowdowns, increased vacancies were a consequence of a higher supply of new construction, rather than by a lower demand of occupancy. With the relative absence of any new residential rental construction, the cyclical risks in the apartment sector are currently low.”

 Got it. So there is (1) likely upside in rental rates, (2) super tight rental market as evidenced by essentially nil vacancy rates, (3) there isn’t much supply coming onto the market, and (4) did we forget to mention 95% non-recourse debt-financed acquisition? Let’s see what happened after that.

In April 1998, SPY sold 4 of the 12 buildings for net proceeds of $44 million (Unicorp’s share), which was used to repay debt. SPY was now left with 3,358 units at around 2.1 million sqft. All throughout this time, the properties were also producing some positive free cash flows, so there was no additional net equity investment required.

Fast-forward to 2000, SPY sold the remaining buildings for $115 million (Unicorp’s share). Using rough math over the 3-year period: for basically $6 million of equity investment, Unicorp made $49 million ($159 million total sales proceeds less $110 million in non-recourse debt repayment). It was actually a bit more than this, since the properties were positive free cash flowing during this time, but hey let’s just call it an 8x which works out to around 100% CAGR. Not bad, considering it was all with non-recourse debt.

They generally used the money to invest in Parkbridge (land leasing business for mobile and recreational homes), and Brascan/Brookfield stock. In the case of Parkbridge, which they initially started investing in in 1998, we estimate they spent no more than $30 million developing it and by 2004 their stake was worth $100 million when it was publicly floated. Not quite the out-of-this-world percentage returns from SPY, but certainly enough to warrant a few cartwheels around the office.

 

181 University Avenue Land Purchase

Let’s look at another investment they made in 2002 – by then, Unicorp was now known as Wilmington. In either case, the company bought, through a sale-leaseback transaction, the land at 181 University Avenue in Toronto. You only have to look at the location of this on Google Maps and you’ll immediately see it is in a prime area of downtown Toronto.

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The 181 University Avenue land was purchased for $19 million. Based on the disclosures we estimate it was financed with probably ~$18.4 million of (again) non-recourse debt. Since they only owned the land, they effectively had no capex. The owners of the actual building, who were paying Unicorp the land lease payments, were the ones that had the pleasure of spending money to make sure the building was in tip-top shape. And since it was in a prime downtown location, it was likely the building owners would continue paying those land lease payments. 

Anyway, even though this land purchase was 95%+ (we estimate) non-recourse debt-financed, this investment was also positive free cash flowing every year. No net equity investment again. We think we’re starting to see a trend here. 

In 2006, this land was sold for $24.3 million. By then, ~$1 million of debt had been repaid from the land lease payments, meaning only $17.4 million of debt was outstanding. So the company netted $6.9 million from the sale, from ~$600k of equity.

 

Yeah, but…

Now some people might say the SPY and 181 University purchases were just good timing. In a sense, it is true that returns (especially for the 181 sale in 2006) were juiced by a healthy economy. But at the same time, let’s look at the downside should either of these investments not have turned out due to bad timing or other shenanigans.

If on January 1, 1998 Toronto was no longer the center of Canada (saving endless eye rolling out west), instead becoming a destitute dirt patch causing Unicorp’s SPY investment became worthless, the company would have taken a whopping $6 million hit to shareholders’ equity, which was $58 million at the time (ie, $52 million shareholders’ equity pro-forma for Armageddon). Almost all of this would have been in net cash. And because the debt was non-recourse, the downside was capped at this amount (assuming they didn’t pour any more money into it, of course). It is a similar scenario if you assumed the same on the 181 purchase.

Now all we’re looking for are (1) real estate properties in prime areas which would have positive free cash flows even after levering up 95%, and (2) banks that would actually lend us 95% on a non-recourse basis…and we’re set!

 

Want to read more? Just check out their old annual filings on SEDAR - https://www.sedar.com/DisplayProfile.do?lang=EN&issuerType=03&issuerNo=00002414

(On March 8, 2002, the name of the Corporation waschanged from Unicorp Inc. to Wilmington Capital Management Inc.)

The Long and Short of It With John Hempton

Investor Highlight - John Hempton, CIO of Bronte Capital, is one of the more fun individuals we have come across in the investment world. He runs an interesting twist of a long-short strategy. He buys larger longer-term positions where the main goal is “8-10 percent positions we can hold for decades”. On the short-side, he focuses on a large portfolio (1,000+ over their history) of very small positions (<0.5%), meaning they can’t fall into short pits like Bill Ackman’s now famous failed $1 billion short of Herbalife (yikes – hopefully we have money like that to lose someday!). Now, us here at CVI haven’t typically been shorters. We like complaining about bad companies with bad reporting, but we haven’t gotten out of our armchairs yet.

Track-record-wise the annualized return of their Amalthea Fund has been 13.8% average per year since 2014 through 2018 (off-cycle year-end where 2018 YE was June calendar 2019).

So, should you short Telsa? How do you not blow up a short book? Why is General Electric such a mess in spite of still building some amazing products? John Hempton covers all this in about an hour. Enjoy!

John Hempton, CIO of Bronte Capital, is one of the most colorful short-sellers in the business. In this deep and wide-ranging discussion with Matt Milsom, he discusses the red flags that lead him to short particular stocks, and shares some of his methodology for managing his short book.

Public information on the funds can be found here - https://www.brontecapital.com/partners-letters

There is also his blog that has the “sometimes eccentric views of John Hempton”.

Ryanair Holdings PLC – Who’s Behind Those Low Costs Anyways?

Have you ever flown around Europe on Ryanair for 5 euros? It is a pretty remarkable airline that is run by Michael O’Leary.

While we won’t get into the RASMs and CASMs of Ryanair (today anyway), we wanted to frame the story with a few numbers of their performance over the last decade.

Ryanair 1.png

The man behind the story is Michael O’Leary. He is the CEO of Ryanair and his been there since 1988 (CEO since 1994). He is rumored to have gone over in the late 80s to see how low cost upstart Southwest Airlines operated, which was founded by one of our most favorite CEOs ever - the late Herb Kelleher. You can see our article on why Berkshire bought the airlines for more - http://www.canadianvalueinvestors.com/home/2018/6/4/investing-in-north-american-airlines-why-did-berkshire-hathaway-buy-airlines-anyway

 One of us has affectionately said that Michael O’Leary Herb Kelleher’s Irish cousin that is quite a bit more brash but probably drinks about the same. And so, this brings us to an interview with Michael from a 2013 Low Cost Airline conference. Frankly, he’s very entertaining, beginning his interview by openly questioning why some airlines attending the conference are even there. We thought our readers would enjoy (we sure did).

The BBC's Stephen Sackur hosts a one on one exclusive interview with Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair and asks him how his company are responding to a challenging environment and maturing market. Visit the website: http://www.terrapinn.com/conference/world-low-cost-airlines Read our blog: http://blogs.terrapinn.com/bluesky/ Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/airlinesblog Join us on LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=124921

EBITDA Shenanigans - How did ya get that numba?

Here at CVI we look at a lot of financial statements. One thing we have learned is that not all CFOs are created equal. They’re a bit like snowflakes. Some prefer to disclose a lot, some not so much so. Some like simple reporting, other’s don’t. Some don’t even don’t even do much of their own reporting!

One area we’re increasingly skeptical of is calculating “EBITDA”. It’s supposed to be Earnings Before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization. It’s a metric used by companies, banks, and analyst reports. It’s very important, as a company’s “EBITDA” is usually used by its lenders to determine pricing of its loans and whether it is in default or not (yikes). And it sounds official and definitive as all good acronyms should. But it’s not. It’s shockingly inconsistent even within the same industry. We have stood on our soap box (at least in the shower) saying it’s also not very useful in actually understanding how a business performs. However, where it is useful is understanding how management thinks about their business and what they want to tell you.

Thankfully it’s not just us complaining. S&P put together a thoughtful article on EBITDA we thought was well worth sharing called “When The Cycle Turns: The Continued Attack Of The EBITDA Add-Back”. Key points include:

“Companies and deal arrangers have become increasingly creative in presenting what qualifies as an add-back, resulting in an increase in both the number and types of adjustments. In some of these cases, S&P Global Ratings views the act--expanding the definition of management-adjusted EBITDA to inflate "marketing EBITDA" (EBITDA plus add-backs)--as an artificial deflation of leverage”

Complacent lenders and low interest rates make for an interesting time.

Check out the article here - https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/190919-when-the-cycle-turns-the-continued-attack-of-the-ebitda-add-back-11156255

Fun for those at home - Here’s an exercise. Sit down and read five annual reports from five companies back to back in the exact same industry. Let us know how consistent they talk about their business and industry.

And what happens when things turn as all good cycle do?

“The good battle-tested professionals who were in their 40s and 50s during the 2008 downturn are now in their 50s and 60s and thinking about retirement or joining a more lucrative turnaround firm. This combined with banks focused intensely on their expense ratios as mandated by Wall Street and the slimming down of non-revenue producing divisions, has a created a dearth of experienced special assets professionals.”

http://www.abladvisor.com/articles/17092/space-cowboys-and-special-assets